Senate Increasingly In Play for Democrats

Though Democrats have long been cautiously optimistic about making Donald Trump a one-term president, the structural inequity baked into the US Senate has made the prospect of booting Mitch McConnell from the Majority Leader’s job seem like a pipe dream. That is beginning to change.

Recent polls have found close races or even Democratic leads not just in swing states like Colorado and North Carolina, but in some surprising red states: Arizona, Iowa, Montana, and even Texas. Susan Collins in Maine, currently the least popular US senator, is in big trouble. And then there’s Georgia, where both Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue are vulnerable.

While things aren’t looking hopeful for Democrat Doug Jones retaining his seat in Alabama, even with the loss of that seat, Democrats would just need to pick up three of these to take over the majority. A combination of strong candidates and backlash to the blindly loyal Republican support for Trump, despite a horrifying and rising death count, is making a takeover more plausible.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is flailing. It has been clear since at least February that his failure to seriously respond to the pandemic is rooted in his absolute focus on winning reelection. His obsession with keeping “the numbers” low, even artificially, has been his entire focus. 

In recent weeks, it has become clear that he’s not going to be able to tamp down those numbers, and his tactic now is to browbeat the country into “reopening.” This is certain to lead to a spike in infections and deaths, but in a morbid twist, it is seen as better politically for Trump to get this out of the way now than to have big numbers closer to the election. It’s a huge gamble, and he’s playing with real human lives.

Now, if Democrats can demonstrate a bold vision for dealing with both the coronavirus outbreak and the economic catastrophe caused by it, they have a real shot at convincing voters to give them the chance to do the job.